Election 2024: Past Race Call History

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Post on Nov 06, 2024

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Election 2024: Past Race Call History - Who Got it Right (and Wrong) Last Time?

The 2024 election is just around the corner, and everyone's wondering who will win. We're all glued to the polls, but honestly, who can we trust? Let's take a deep dive into the past race call history and see who nailed it in 2020.

The Big Players

The big names in election prediction are folks like FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, and The Cook Political Report. These guys are like the "experts" of the political world, and they use fancy models and tons of data to figure out who's gonna win. But did they get it right in 2020?

FiveThirtyEight was pretty spot-on with its predictions. It got the national popular vote right, as well as the majority of the swing states. They were one of the first to call Arizona for Biden, which was a huge deal.

RealClearPolitics also did a good job overall. It was a little less accurate than FiveThirtyEight on the national level, but it was right on the money with most of the swing states.

The Cook Political Report was known for its conservative approach, and it had some missed calls. It predicted a closer race in key states, which wasn't entirely accurate.

The Smaller Guys

But wait, there's more! There were also some smaller players who got a lot of attention, like The Trafalgar Group and The Economist.

The Trafalgar Group made some bold predictions in 2020, claiming Trump was going to win several states that he ultimately lost. It was criticized for its methodology and its lack of transparency.

The Economist made some surprisingly accurate predictions, especially in the key states. However, it also missed some crucial calls.

What Can We Learn?

So, what does all this mean for 2024? Well, it's clear that no one has a crystal ball. Even the most sophisticated models can be off the mark sometimes.

What's important is to be aware of the different methodologies and biases that can influence election predictions. And remember, even if a poll shows one candidate ahead, the race can still change in the final days.

The bottom line: Take all polls with a grain of salt, do your own research, and don't be afraid to question the experts.

Stay tuned for more coverage as the 2024 election gets closer!