The Popular Vote: A Look Back at the Last 40 Years
You hear it all the time, especially after a close election: "The loser won the popular vote!" But what exactly is the popular vote, and how has it played out in the last 40 years? Let's take a trip down memory lane and see how the numbers have shifted.
What is the Popular Vote?
In the United States, the President is elected by the Electoral College, not by a direct popular vote. The popular vote is simply the total number of votes cast for each candidate across the entire country. It's a simple concept, right? But the Electoral College system, with its winner-take-all approach in most states, can lead to situations where the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide doesn't actually win the presidency.
The Popular Vote: A Tale of Two Eras
The last 40 years have witnessed a clear trend in the popular vote. In the 80s and 90s, Republican candidates often won both the popular vote and the Electoral College. But in the 21st century, the tide has shifted. Here's the breakdown:
1980 - 2000:
- Ronald Reagan: Won the popular vote and Electoral College twice.
- George H.W. Bush: Won both popular vote and Electoral College once.
- Bill Clinton: Won both popular vote and Electoral College twice.
- George W. Bush: Won the Electoral College twice, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore in 2000.
2004 - Present:
- George W. Bush: Won the Electoral College, but lost the popular vote to John Kerry in 2004.
- Barack Obama: Won both the popular vote and Electoral College twice.
- Donald Trump: Won the Electoral College twice, but lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.
The Popular Vote: A Cause for Concern?
This trend has led to a growing debate about the legitimacy of the Electoral College system. Some argue that it gives undue weight to the votes of people in less populous states, and that it's time for a national popular vote. Others defend the system, arguing that it ensures representation for all states, not just the most populous ones.
Looking Ahead: What's Next for the Popular Vote?
The debate around the popular vote isn't going anywhere. The trend of presidential candidates winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote is likely to continue in future elections.
Whether the US adopts a national popular vote system or sticks with the Electoral College remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the popular vote is an important indicator of public opinion, and it's a conversation that will likely continue for years to come.